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What luck Got 2 do with it?

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What luck Got 2 do with it?

Post by 8FOCUS8 on Fri Mar 27, 2009 9:52 am

I would first like to start by saying this is a great site. There is so much usefull info here i cant imagine not getting better spending time here. My problem today is luck. I dont know if i have the worst luck in the world or if i am just expiencing poker. I have made a spread sheet to track my MTT play. In the last 15 i have played i have yet to see the $. I have gone out 2- 11 spots before the money in my last 6 events.These are freeroles with an average of 6000.In the last three i went out with AKs after floping AK.Beat by a set of 5s. I went out withQQ after floping a set. Beat by four 10s, forth ten and only out on the river.Most recently i got beat with AA after turning a set. The winner hit a J on the river for a gut shot strait. So is this my bad play or would you say that I am unlucky?

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Re: What luck Got 2 do with it?

Post by illphillllllll on Fri Mar 27, 2009 10:09 am

going 15 tournys in a row without a cash happens to the best of them. sounds like the way your losing its only a matter of time before you get a couple of itm finishes and a final table or two. hope your luck changes in our tournys this weekend.
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Re: What luck Got 2 do with it?

Post by datsme53 on Fri Mar 27, 2009 10:19 am

Well... we all go through streaks at times and you sound as though your streak is about to end. You must be playing sound poker to get that far in freerolls with so many entrants. The fact that you didn't get ITM doesn't mean there is anything wrong with your game. Bad beats happen.. sometimes in bunches.. and you just keep playing your game the way you got as far as you did in those tourneys you speak of... and good things will happen. My guess is that when you start cashing in those tournaments.... that may very well start a streak of really good finishes for you. Don't get down because of the bad beats... your game got you to that point.. it will get you further too. Good luck in your next tourney! Smile
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Re: What luck Got 2 do with it?

Post by darkstar on Thu Apr 02, 2009 1:16 am

i agree it just sounds like your on a bad streak i was now for the past week but today i won all of my games well not 1st but got to the money up $ 40 today still got a little more to get back form the last week but from today i can tell im back and im going to make some money tell the next time cause really it happens to all of us and even the pros u dont here about it cause well they dont talk about it they only talk about the good games.

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Re: What luck Got 2 do with it?

Post by The Big Donk on Thu Apr 02, 2009 11:03 am

8FOCUS8 wrote:...My problem today is luck. I dont know if i have the worst luck in the world or if i am just expiencing poker...

Oh yeah, you are experiencing poker. A decent poker player could expect to cash in 15%-30% of the MTTs that they play. But most of the time that won't happen in literally 1 out of every 3 to 1 out of every 6 games, it will just average out that way in the long run. My longest non-cash streak to date has been a whopping 44 games in a row! Then I broke that streak by actually winning (1st place!) three games in a row! While those are both highly unusual results, they do illustrate the swings in the game. And although 44 games in a row is alot to lose, I do, sadly, expect to break that personal record some day. Not sure if I'll ever manage 4 consecutive wins to beat the old win streak record though.

8FOCUS8 wrote:...I have made a spread sheet to track my MTT play...

This is a great idea. I always track all of my progress, ring games, sngs, mtts, deposits, withdrawls, big hands, big pots, big wins, big losses, times, dates, opponents, everything. I think it's important for anyone who wants to be successful at anything to keep track of details. Alot of hidden patterns can emerge when solid records are kept, and these patterns can be used as yet another weapon in a poker player's arsenal to increase their edge.

8FOCUS8 wrote: ...In the last 15 i have played i have yet to see the $. I have gone out 2- 11 spots before the money in my last 6 events.These are freeroles with an average of 6000...

Part of the reason for the not cashing may be the size of the field and the payouts. If this tourney pays out 600-1200 places, I'd say keep playing your A-game, you'll hit money soon. I'm not sure what freeroll this is, but many sites don't offer great payouts. For instance, Carbon Poker offers freerolls throughout the day with around 500 players, but they only pay out the top 10. This is about 1/5th of what a normal payout structure would look like, so an average player should expect to see a serious reduction in their ITM % in these games. Full Tilt's public freerolls have 2,700 participants and pay out only 27 places. That's only 1% of the field versus the normal 10% payout of their buy-in tournaments! Therefore, if a good player can expect to cash in about 20% of their tournaments with a 10% payout, they should only expect to cash in about 2% in games with a 1% payout.
[shameless plug Very Happy ] If you want to increase your odds of cashing, make sure to participate in the donkhard freerolls & tourneys. Our tournaments offer 10%-30% payouts, vastly increasing your odds of making some money. On Full Tilt for example, we usually only have about 350 players in our freerolls (rather than the 2,700 players in their public freerolls), and we usually payout in the range of 36 to 63 players (rather than the only 27 places paid in the public freerolls). Much better odds and a fairer amount of rewards for the solid players.


8FOCUS8 wrote:...In the last three i went out with AKs after floping AK.Beat by a set of 5s. I went out withQQ after floping a set. Beat by four 10s, forth ten and only out on the river.Most recently i got beat with AA after turning a set. The winner hit a J on the river for a gut shot strait. So is this my bad play or would you say that I am unlucky?...

I couldn't make a fair call here either way without knowing how you and your opponent(s) played the hands. In my rookie days, I used to spike a set and then "trap" them all the way to the river if I had to. Of course after taking enough beatings from letting my opponents catch their straights or flushes for free, I learned that a "trap" will snare whoever lands in it, be it hunter or game.

Oh no wait, I can make a call about the QQQTT versus TTTT hand. Yeah, you're going to loose all your chips on that one. Period. Most of the time, even the best players will, especially if it the Qs were top set. You got top boat, and the likelihood of anyone hitting quads is too rare to lose sleep (or muck top boats) over. It's a heartbreaking feeling to be on the losing end of that one, but it would be tough for anyone to really say that you did the wrong thing when you lost your chips. The guy's not mucking a set of tens, and you're not mucking a set of queens, and 98% of the time, you will win that hand.

Keep playing, learning, and tracking your progress. The streak will break sometime. Feel free to come back and share some more gut-wrenchers with us and let us know how it goes when the non-cash streak goes crumbling down!

Good luck!

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Re: What luck Got 2 do with it?

Post by bestoboth on Thu Apr 02, 2009 3:06 pm

We all hit bad streaks... truly... yes.. that is poker... LOL the variance is HELL sometimes! LOL it is important to remember that winning in poker means winning over the long term... and that can be tough to remember sometimes when you are on a downswing...

But the most important thing is not to let it affect your game. Sometimes ya gotta take a little break and come back later, fresh again... otherwise you can follow those streaks down a spiral of tilt into madness.. LOL OK perhaps that was a bit dramatic but still somewhat true! LOL

Anyway, chin-up! Just keep playing solid poker and it will turn around. As TBD said without some more specific info it is hard to say for sure whether or not your play was at fault but even with the best cards and the best flops... sometimes we all get drowned in the river! Just keep your head on str8 and it should all come out in the wash. Smile


GL!! Smile and don't forget to let us know when it does turn around! Smile

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Re: What luck Got 2 do with it?

Post by darkstar on Thu Apr 02, 2009 4:27 pm

hey darkstar again just want to say hope your doing better today man and yes that is definitely poker we have all been there anyway back to you good luck today and the days to come and please tell us if your luck does change id like to know and if not someone here may be able to help you u never know . Very Happy cheers

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Re: What luck Got 2 do with it?

Post by Guest on Thu Apr 02, 2009 5:09 pm

8FOCUS8 wrote:I would first like to start by saying this is a great site. There is so much usefull info here i cant imagine not getting better spending time here. My problem today is luck. I dont know if i have the worst luck in the world or if i am just expiencing poker. I have made a spread sheet to track my MTT play. In the last 15 i have played i have yet to see the $. I have gone out 2- 11 spots before the money in my last 6 events.These are freeroles with an average of 6000.In the last three i went out with AKs after floping AK.Beat by a set of 5s. I went out withQQ after floping a set. Beat by four 10s, forth ten and only out on the river.Most recently i got beat with AA after turning a set. The winner hit a J on the river for a gut shot strait. So is this my bad play or would you say that I am unlucky?

just keep playin your game those things happen to all of us it can be a fun game or u can go on a brutal streak have had those days were every ak i play has lost just got to shrug it off next tourney or game will be better luck does have something to do with it but that comes and gos solid game will help u further down the line

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