The Ferguson on Full Tilt

Heya!

So tonight I'm competing in the Fergie on Full Tilt. Come by and rail me, The B1g D0nk.

So far, I've survived to the 2nd break, but to be honest, I'm not doing so good.

My first problem came when I folded 22. Oh yeah, playing Pocket Pairs calls for a strategy article from yours truly. But who should take advice from someone who makes bad plays? Well it's hard to defend my stance. All I can say for myself is that the greatest mistake that we all make is not learning from others (or our own) mistakes. Also, bear in mind that this is not the first time I've made this mistake.

History will repeat itself. Period.

Okay, so to recap; I'm in the Ferguson. I've got 22 in the hole in middle position. I've got 31 blinds in my stack (3,100 with the blinds at 100). Under the gun raises to 3 BB's (300). After a long enough to make a good decision, I decide to fold instead. 5 way action sees the flop:

9 4 2 rainbow.

F***!

UTG checks. The player to my right insta-goes all-in! And gets action!

The shover had top pair (8 9).

Turn comes a blank, and river a 9. I would have won deuces full of 9's over his 3 of a kind nines. Horrible fold. Statistically horrible fold. 6,000+ pot. Please learn from my mistake and cash in.

But I fight tilt (in any form). I move on. I live and (sometimes) learn.

I held tight and a few hands ago I was in the SB. Everyone folded to me and the BB. I shoved all in with AQ, got called by KQ, and doubled up to 4000+. Currently in 170 out of 262, 180 places paid, 1st place wins $231.80 and, most importantly, the glory of victory!

Anyhow, I know I can't be the only Donkhard who plays the Ferguson. Click reply and share your experience in the Fergie... and good luck!

i dont play the fergie or whatever its called.
however i do want to reply on your post if i may.
dropping pocket 2's preflop aint a bad drop. sure it was painfull to see the trips on flop and full on river. however the odds of that happening are really slim. only 2 cards in the deck that can make your pocket 2's valuable.
and that are the other 2's...so out of a full deck with more players on a table.....only 2 cards could save you, the rest could all kill you then and there, is it really worth risking a part of your stack to luck out?
if you really think that this is idd the perfect forum for you lollll.
however i think its just a unlucky fold thats all.
dont get tilted over it, or get crazy in your head about it. not worth it.
remember: you cant win em all... and if you play your cards right and make the good readons about your other players on the table....you can still make good on the unlucky fold later on in the game.
every play has its own strategy. a tight player can make beautifull bluffs. a loose player can suck in loads of players. and well...the donkey....no1 knows lol.
but they have 1 thing in common: they all get badluck sometimes, they all make mistakes cause were all humans, and none of us are fortune tellers so we never know what can fall on the table.
idd a unlucky fold, painfull and frustrating....doesnt make the fold a incorrect one.
pocket2's and p[ocket 3s arent good to play, unless youre stack is bigger then that of everyone else, or if youre a very tight player. ppl then think you have bigger then that.

anyway, this is my point of view.....but ahwell...im no professor so who am i to judge...
ppl: opinions?

TDB, let me know when you're playing on Full Tilt and I'd gladly join you.

I tried playing the Matrix S&G for the first time after reading your post, and I made a quick profit of $0.70 cents. That shit was fun as hell.

snug25 wrote:...dropping pocket 2's preflop aint a bad drop. sure it was painfull to see the trips on flop and full on river. however the odds of that happening are really slim. only 2 cards in the deck that can make your pocket 2's valuable.
and that are the other 2's...so out of a full deck with more players on a table.....only 2 cards could save you, the rest could all kill you then and there, is it really worth risking a part of your stack to luck out?...idd a unlucky fold, painfull and frustrating....doesnt make the fold a incorrect one.
pocket2's and p[ocket 3s arent good to play, unless youre stack is bigger then that of everyone else, or if youre a very tight player. ppl then think you have bigger then that.

anyway, this is my point of view.....but ahwell...im no professor so who am i to judge...
ppl: opinions?

For me, it was purely the mathematics of the game that made it an incorrect fold in my opinion. True, the chances of spiking a set are slim, but not as slim as many players believe.

Let's walk through the math. There are 52 cards in the deck. Two cards are dealt to me; in this case, pocket 2's. So now there are 50 cards left in the deck. Of course the cards are distributed in different ways: amongst other players, burn cards, board cards, undealt, etc, but the point is that they are all distributed randomly. Any one card has the same exact chance as any other card to be dealt into another player's hand, be burned, come out on the board, be on the top of the deck, be on the bottom of the deck, etc. So the bottom line is that 50 random cards are left out there.

Now out of those 50 random cards, 3 of them will come out on the flop. 50 / 3 = 16.6667. That means that 1 out of every 16.6667 flops will contain a specific card, such as the 2 of hearts. Since there are actually 2 cards in the deck that will improve our pocket pair, we can take that 16.6667 and divide it by 2, which gives us 8.3333. Bottom line: Take 2 deuces out of the deck, and still 1 out of every 8.3333 (or 12%) flops will contain a deuce.

That mathematical fact of the game is that I will spike a set 12% of the time that I am holding a pocket pair.

Granted, I won't always win with a set. The most common ways to lose are against a flush, a straight, or a higher set. Set against set is pretty rare, and I don't see the point of fretting over that any more than fretting your top boat against the possibility of the other guy holding quads. The chances of flopping a flush or a straight are not only super slim, but they are often so apparent that I'll often be able to throw away my set against them without losing my whole stack. Usually when you manage to spike a set and get all of your chips in, you'll get action from something like top-pair top-kicker, two-pair, or an over-pair.

When you're calling a preflop raiser, especially a tight one, you're likely going up against a big pocket pair or AK, AQ, something like that. If you connect against this guy, you're doubling your stack. End of story.

Since I'm going to hit this set 12% of the time, I can call off up to 12% of my stack to see this flop. Calling off more than that is bad poker. I'll often go bust before I hit a set. Folding for less won't cost you any of your chips, but it could cost you alot of theirs.

Of course, 2's and 3's aren't the best pocket pairs in the world to play. Like you said, about the only way you're gonna win is to spike a set, versus bigger pairs such as Aces and Kings that will more often than not win you the pot without having to hit a set. Still, the implied odds on a set are huge, especially against a preflop raiser. When you spike a set against a player with an over pair or a player with AK when he spikes a King on the flop, you will almost always double your stack, sometimes against even the best of players.

In the end, I was only being asked to risk 9.68% of my stack even though I had 12% odds of hitting. As you said, it wasn't a horrible fold, but considering I had the pot and implied odds to play, especially with that much action preflop, it was an incorrect play.

Btw, I appreciate your input, especially about not beating myself up and driving myself crazy over it. Losing a bunch of your own chips is a great way to get set on tilt, but so is missing out on a big pot. It's important to remember that when we play well, we do well in our games. When we play bad, the game goes bad, and profits go down... and tilt makes us play bad!