Counting Outs in Poker - Ways to Improve Your hand

What are outs?

Outs are simply cards that will improve the strength of your hand.

For instance, let's say that you have KJ, and the flop is 4 10 Q. In this case, a 9 or an Ace would give you a straight. This is known as an "open ended straight draw." There are exactly 4 of each rank of cards in a standard 52-card deck. So there are 4 nines that can make your straight and also 4 aces that can complete your straight. 4 + 4 = 8. So if you have an open ended straight draw, you have a total of 8 outs.

Here's another example:

This time you have the King of Diamonds and the Jack of Diamonds. The flop comes down 2 4 9, and two of those cards are diamonds. You now have a "flush draw." If one more diamond comes on the turn or river, you will have completed your flush. So how many outs do you have? Well, let's figure this out. There are exactly 13 cards of each suit in a standard 52-card deck, which is to say there are a total of 13 diamonds. You already have 2 diamonds in your hand. 13 - 2 = 11. There are also two more diamonds on the board. 11 - 2 = 9. Therefore, if you have a flush draw, you have 9 outs to complete your flush and improve your hand.

Counting Extra Outs

Let's take the above example and add some extra outs to it. Say you've been paying real close attention to your opponent, maybe he's a buddy of yours who you've played with many times before. So you've got a pretty good idea of what he's holding based on what you know about how he plays and how he has played his hand thus far. You figure him for having a medium pocket pair like 77 or 88, or maybe something like an A4. So now you know that if any of your 9 remaining diamonds come through, you'll beat him with the flush. But you could also catch one of the three remaining Kings or one of the three remaining Jacks in the deck to beat him with a higher pair. Now you outs are 9 diamonds + 3 Kings + 3 Jacks for a total of 15 outs.

Hands and Outs
Here's a handy little chart of some different draws you'll see and their corresponding number of outs:

I will add a bit to this. Because I know that people have false beliefs about Outs and Odds together.

I will start with the Rule of 4
This is a simple concept
On the flop you count your outs and then multiply them by 4
So if you have 15outs, it is 15x4=60
That is 60% chance you will complete your hand.
On the turn you reduce this number to 2.
So 15x2=30, 30% chance of hitting the river with your 15 outter.

But this is not an exact science by any means.

Here's a chart for you guys
# of Outs |Flop-to-Turn| Turn-to-River | Flop-to-River -Percentages to complete hands
1 Out 2.13% 2.17% 4.26%
2 Outs 4.26% 4.35% 8.42%
3 Outs 6.38% 6.52% 12.49%
4 Outs 8.51% 8.70% 16.47%
5 Outs 10.64% 10.87% 20.35%
6 Outs 12.77% 13.04% 24.14%
7 Outs 14.89% 15.22% 27.84%
8 Outs 17.02% 17.39% 31.45%
9 Outs 19.15% 19.57% 34.97%
10 Outs 21.28% 21.74% 38.39%
11 Outs 23.40% 23.91% 41.72%
12 Outs 25.53% 26.09% 44.96%
13 Outs 27.66% 28.26% 48.10%
14 Outs 29.79% 30.43% 51.16%
15 Outs 31.91% 32.61% 54.12%
16 Outs 34.04% 34.78% 56.98%
17 Outs 36.17% 36.96% 59.76%
18 Outs 38.30% 39.13% 62.44%
19 Outs 40.43% 41.30% 65.03%
20 Outs 42.55% 43.48% 67.53%
21 Outs 44.68% 45.65% 69.94%
22 Outs 46.81% 47.83% 72.25%

This Lesson I will give you right now will save your sanity when you keep missing big draws, and I myself have not seen it in print (though it very well could be)

These are only approximations and not true odds most of the time.
So if you keep whiffing on your draws don't get mad and steam off more of your money, there could be reasons behind this.

The size of your table effects your True # of Outs.
Here is why....
Lets say you are in heads up on a table of 9 players with someone holding aces or kings... you know and feel that he has one of those hands in your soul...
You have a big hand cracker like 6s-7s...
The flop is 4s-5s-Jx...
You count your outs 9 Flush cards and 8 Straight cards... except you have two take away two of your straight cards because they belong to your flush draw...
So you have 15 outs...
Using the Rule of 4 you figure 60% or with that chart you can see it is a bit less at 54%... you are the favorite to win this hand....
But are you really?
You are most likely missing some of your outs. Because there are 7 other players on the table and they are dealt 2 cards each two. That's 14 cards you can not account for... Hell if the Poker Gods are against you this hand all 14 of those cards could be your outs leaving you with only 1 left to hit out of what you thought was a 15 outter
(this is really, really unlikely though)

I will explain some math to help you realize what your more likely number of outs is...
okay we have 6s-7s and he has Aces for sure.... and you see 4s-5s-Jx...
that's 4 cards between you and your opponent and 3 cards on the flop for 7 cards you can account for...
52 card deck, you know 7 of the cards out, so there are 45 cards (in live casinos you take off a card because of the burn cards, and another one of the turn for the turn burn card)
okay, you are not drawing from a 45 card deck on a full table
there are those 14 cards your opponents have mucked too
you are in fact drawing from 31 cards
but among those 14 cards in the muck contain some of your outs usually...
so we need to get a percentage of how many of your outs are gone from each table for a heads up pot....

# of Players on table & Rough % of Outs thrown into the muck by other Players
9 - 31%
8 - 26%
7 - 22%
6 - 17%
5 - 13%
4 - 8%
3 - 4%
2 - 0%

So lets say you have 15 outs on a full table 15 x 31% is basically 5 cards out of your 15 original outs in the muck
So you are really drawing with 10 outs statisically, but don't be scared off by this fact... you are also drawing from a smaller deck(31 instead of 45) than a heads up match...

The reason why I posted all this is to make people realize that counting Outs and Odds is a valuable tool... but it can also be misleading... I generally try to go with Outs and Odds in my favor but I also know in the back of my head that the case may be I am cold decked because my other opponents are mucking my outs, the lousy jerks!

Also remember when counting outs you should also weigh them against what hands may be out there... trust me .... drawing to a flush draw and having your man turn up Ax-s on you is nasty...

I've asked the question many times about outs and you both have answered what I already knew .....counting outs can be VERY misleading.

Ok, you hear pro tips all the time, and one of them is never draw to a low end of a straight, so say im opend ended, should i not count the outs of the cards i need to draw to the lower end of a straight before i make my decision? so instead of having 8 outs i really only have 4 because i shouldnt draw for the low end? Would this be the correct way of calculating the risk?

This should be obvious but I will say it anyway. If you have connectors at the top end, or a one gap then the low end of the straight should have as much value as the high. For example, you have J 10 and 8 9 hits on the flop, or you have Q 10 and K J hit on the flop.

have tried that in the last couple of freerolls it has helped in deciding the hands that i would try to win with and has kept me away from pushin that all in button wish there wasnt 1 of them lol
trucker103

have tried that a few times i just like no limit the other way u cant protect a good hand .