Texas Holdem Odds and Chances of Winning

When you sit down to play some Texas Holdem Poker, you might have a certain idea of which starting hands you are going to play. But do you know the chances of catching one of these hands? For instance, did you know that you are more likely to get dealt pocket aces than you are to get dealt AK suited?

Now you do. Below you’ll find some odds on being dealt some key hands in Texas Hold ‘em.

Odds of being dealt specific hold’em starting hands:

* 2 suited cards = 3/1 = 24%
* Unsuited connectors = 7.5/1 = 12%
* Any pair = 16/1 = 6%
* A top 10 hand = 22/1 = 4%
* Suited connectors = 27/1 = 4%
* AA KK or QQ = 73/1 = 1.4%
* AK (suited or offsuit) = 82/1 = 1.2%
* AA or KK = 110/1 = 0.9%
* AA = 220/1 = 0.5%
* KK = 220/1 = 0.5%
* AK suited = 331/1 - 0.3%

So now that you know your chances of being dealt a certain hand, you should be aware of what you’re up against. What if you raise with KK and another players goes all-in over you? What are the chances he’s holding Aces? Following is a list of some common starting hands that are played with the odds that someone may have you beat!

Odds that someone has a better starting hand than you preflop

(Stats based on a 9 player table):

* KK = 22/1
* AK (off suit) = 22/1
* QQ = 10.5/1
* JJ = 7/1
* 10 10 = 5/1
* AQ (off suit) = 5/1
* 99 = 4/1
* KQ (off suit) = 3/1
* AJ (off suit) = 2.5/1
* KJ (off suit) = 2/1
* A10 (off suit) = 1.7/1
* QJ (off suit) = 1.5/1
* K10 (off suit) = 1.5/1

So what happens when somebody goes all-in pre-flop and you have a hand you want to call with? Or when you make the shove and get action? Following are some common matchups and their rough odds of winning.

The Chances of winning typical hold’em all-in matchups

* Pocket Pair vs Lower Pair = 82%
* Pocket Pair vs 2 Overcards = 55%
* Pocket Pair vs 1 Overcard = 69%
* Pocket Pair vs Lower Unsuited Connectors = 81%
* Pocket Pair vs Lower Suited Connectors = 77%
* Pocket Pair vs Higher Suited Connectors = 50%
* 2 Overcards vs Suited Connectors = 58%
* 2 Overcards vs Unsuited Connectors = 62%
* Dominating Hand (such as AQ vs A8) = 71%
* Suited Overcard vs 1 Pair = 34%
* 1 Overcard vs 1 Pair = 52%
* 1 Overcard vs Suited Connectors = 56%
* 2 Overcards vs Undercards = 68%
* 1 Pair vs Undercards - 89%
* Mixed Cards (such as A10 vs K7) = 64%
* Mixed Cards (such as A8 vs KJ) = 58%

If you play enough poker, you should expect to see plenty of situations where you are not all-in preflop. When this happens, you may want to know what is likely to come on the flop.

What to expect from the flop

* No cards in sequence = 0.8/1 = 55%
* 2 suited cards = 0.8/1 = 55%
* 2 cards in sequence = 1.5/1 = 40%
* 3 different suits = 1.5/1 = 40%
* A pair = 5/1 = 17%
* 3 suited cards = 18/1 = 5.2%
* 3 cards in sequence = 28/1 = 3.5%
* 3 of a given suit - 72/1 = 1.3%
* 3 of a kind - 424/1 = 0.24%

Of course your odds of hitting something on the flop can vary depending on the hand you are dealt and what you’re likely to hit on any given flop. Let’s take a look at the chances of the flop improving your starting hand.

What you will flop

* Pairing at least 1 hole card = 32%
* Straight draw with connectors =26%
* A pair on the board =16%
* Four-flush when suited = 11%
* Making a set with pocket pair = 11%
* Straight flush draw with suited connectors = 3.4%
* Pairing both hole cards = 2%
* Four-flush when not suited = 2%
* Trips with no pocket pair = 1.3%
* Flush with 2 suited cards = 1%
* Making a full house with poket pair = 1%

Put it all together and what have you got? Well that depends on what you’re looking for. Of course, on the showdown, it is the best 5 card hand that wins in texas hold em poker. Following are the chances of being dealt each type of five-card hand.

Odds of being dealt specific hands in five cards

* Royal Flush = 649,740/1
* Straight Flush = 72,192/1
* 4 of a Kind = 4,164/1
* Full House = 693/1
* Flush = 508/1
* Straight = 254/1
* 3 of a Kind = 46/1
* 2 Pair = 20/1
* 1 Pair = 1.37/1
* No Pair = 1/1

Of course it’s not all about preflop action and the flop. There are still 2 more cards to come, and often they do. If you find yourself wanting to stay in the hand after the flop, you should know the odds of improving your hand. Knowing these percentages can help you to make correct calls regarding pot odds, which is a vital part of playing long term winning poker.

Outs are simply another way of saying “cards that will improve the strength of your hand.” Take a look at the odds of hitting your “outs” after the flop.

Post Flop Odds

* 20 Outs = 2 cards to go 68% - 1 card to go 44%
* 19 Outs = 2 cards to go 65% - 1 card to go 41%
* 18 Outs = 2 cards to go 62% - 1 card to go 39%
* 17 Outs = 2 cards to go 60% - 1 card to go 37%
* 16 Outs = 2 cards to go 57% - 1 card to go 35%
* 15 Outs = 2 cards to go 54% - 1 card to go 33%
* 14 Outs = 2 cards to go 51% - 1 card to go 30%
* 13 Outs = 2 cards to go 48% - 1 card to go 28%
* 12 Outs = 2 cards to go 45% - 1 card to go 26%
* 11 Outs = 2 cards to go 42% - 1 card to go 24%
* 10 Outs = 2 cards to go 38% - 1 card to go 22%
* 9 Outs = 2 cards to go 35% - 1 card to go 20%
* 8 Outs = 2 cards to go 32% - 1 card to go 17%
* 7 Outs = 2 cards to go 28% - 1 card to go 15%
* 6 Outs = 2 cards to go 24% - 1 card to go 13%
* 5 Outs = 2 cards to go 20% - 1 card to go 11%
* 4 Outs = 2 cards to go 17% - 1 card to go 9%
* 3 Outs = 2 cards to go 13% - 1 card to go 7%
* 2 Outs = 2 cards to go 8% - 1 card to go 4%
* 1 Outs = 2 cards to go 4% - 1 card to go 2%

Knowing the odds behind the game make the difference between poker being a game of luck, which you have no control over, to a game of skill, which you can win! To increase your odds of becoming a long-term winner even further, be sure that you sign up for online poker rakeback. There’s no sense in just throwing away money that you should be adding to your bankroll!

This article was written by Rob Baker and was reprinted with express written permission from Rob Baker and rakebacktakeback.com. The original printing of this article can be viewed at http://www.rakebacktakeback.com/poker-blog/texas-holdem-odds-and-chances-of-winning

I should keep this open when playing online... thanks for the info TBD!