Pot Odds for DUMMIES

Everytime I've asked on other sites I never understand IS THERE POT ODDS FOR DUMMIES

konawajim wrote:Everytime I've asked on other sites I never understand IS THERE POT ODDS FOR DUMMIES

number of out X's 4

i'll post some basic stats tomorrow or saturday ... too smashed at this point ... perhaps a midnight hike through the forest or a couple of tournaments at 'full tilt' are in order.

man ... where's dizzy and his hot chicks when you need 'em ...

I checked on Amazon, who seems to have every book ever made, and apparently no, no "Pot Odds For Dummies". No "Idiot's Guide to Pot Odds" either.

They do however have a "Poker For Dummies" and an "Idiot's Guide to Poker". I haven't read either of those books, but I'd imagine that they would cover pot odds in both of those, as the "Dummies" and "Idiot's Guide" are typically very thorough books.

Another good book that covers Pot Odds is "Phil Gordon's Little Green Book." He provides a somewhat complicated but very descriptive explanation in his book. It took me a few reads and some practice to get it, but it was well worth it. At the time that I read that book, I had actually been making a slight miscalculation in figuring out my own pot odds. Since reading his pot odds description, I was able to make the correction and have seen my winning sessions and my bankroll increase dramatically.

I have heard people saying that you can figure pot odds without really even using math, but then when they explain it, there always seems to be math involved.

Calculating your odds of hitting is easy enough, but figuring that in with the pot odds still always forces me to stop and do some thinkin', despite that fact that I've played what feels like millions of hands.

I definatly could use :alien:use a book on pot odds, have a hard time figuring them out lol.

Here's Pot Odds in a nutshell

Pot Odds = (Total Pot / Amount of call) to 1

Here's an example:

There's a $28 pot on the flop. After the turn comes down, one player bets $14. So now:

Total Pot = The $28 already in the pot + The $14 bet that's now a part of the pot
so
Total Pot = $28 + $14
so
Total Pot = $42

Amount of call = $14

Plug in the numbers:

Pot Odds = (Total Pot / Amount of call) to 1
so
Pot Odds = ($42 / $14) to 1
so
Pot Odds = 3 to 1

If all your looking for is to calculate the pot odds, that's all you need to know and you are finished here. Do not read on if you already have your own method of applying pot odds, as my explanation may confuse your whole system you've got.

If you do need and explanation on how to use those pot odds once you've calculated them, here's my best explanation:

Let's use the example above where you were getting 3 to 1 Pot Odds on the turn. Great. I've got 3 to 1. So what the hell does that mean?

What 3 to 1 actually means is that if I lose the bet 3 times and win it 1 time, I will break even. So when you see 3 to 1, what it actually refers to is your outcome over 4 hands (3 losses to 1 win).

So to break even, you have to be able to win this hand 1 time for every 3 times you lose it to justify the call. Therefore, when you calculate your chances of breaking even, or Break Even Percentage (BEP), you have to factor in that extra outcome in the formula, your 3 losses plus your 1 win.

Example:

If you Pot Odds are 3 to 1, then:

Break Even Percentage = 1 / (Pot Odds + 1)
so
BEP = 1 / (3 + 1)
so
BEP = 1 / 4
so
BEP = 25%

This means that I need to make a winning hand 25% of the time to justify making the call. If my odds of winning are less than 25%, I should throw the hand away.

I am not the kind of person who can easily do this kind of math in my head. I get confused when a recipe calls for a 1/4 of water.

So I tried to practice it online a bit, but the speed at which the games move online simply make it impractical. So I went down to the casino and bought some chips. If you don't happen to live in Vegas, a local casino may not be a luxury you have. You can also find play chips at most chain drug stores, Wal-Mart, Target, etc. or even Toys R Us. Grab a deck of cards while your there too.

My wife and I played heads up and before I would make a call or fold, every time, I would calculate my odds. I would also make her wait while I calculated her pot odds and BEP. It only took her a few hours to lose patience with my *@!#, God bless her for lasting that long. So I started dealing out hands to myself and continued to practice calculating odds. It worked nicely that way because I got to see both hands and therefore calculate out the full odds on every hand.

If you have troubles with math, as far as I know all you can do is to either practice until it just sticks in your head and becomes automatic or commit some sort of odds chart to memory.

I've got a handy little chart I created my self, unfortunately I haven't used it for so long that by now it's buried under about 600 GBs of other random *@!#. But I will post it when or if I come across it.

thanks to t.b.k. for posting a pot odds response ... covering for me until i was again able to crawl out from under my rock!

was that response what you were seeking joe?

regarding books ...
i have read dan harrington's book: 'harrington on hold'em' volumes one and two ... also co-author by bill robertie. there is a section on pot odds in the first volume, and i would recommend this book to everybody anyway.

i am now reading through phil gordon's books and will be posting a review a.s.a.p.

check out the 'recommended reading' thread for more detailed information of poker books ... updates coming soon ... member participation welcome and encouraged!

Taking off from The Big Donk's explanation of pot odds themselves, it's useful to consider how these apply in Limit, where they are especially useful, and No Limit Holdem, where they are less so, except from the perspective of denying them to your opponent.

It is quite common to get pot odds for your draw in limit play and the calculation thereof is a bit more straightforward. Essentially, as pokerlenn put it, multiply the number of outs you have for what you believe is a winning hand by four and you have the approximate percentage of hitting your draw on the turn and river. If that percentage is greater than the percentage of the pot required to call, you've got pot odds. What you put in is less than your EV. The 4X is a rule of thumb calculation, but relatively accurate. Come the turn, however, if you haven't hit and there's another bet to call, you need to recalculate based on 2X (since only one "draw" remains). At this point, the bet is usually 2x what it was on the flop, but depending on how loose the table is and how big the pot, there's still a significant likelihood that the draw is worth it, especially if you've got both straight and flush possibilities or possibly one of these plus one or two high card draws you suspect would be good.

In NL or Pot Limit, everything changes, though, assuming you aren't playing against pure fish, although you can find quite a few of these online and elsewhere and can adjust your play accordingly. These particular fish like to bet minimum or maybe a bit more (but not much). They also raise minimum. Except as a probe or in a tournament situation when the blinds are large relative to stack size, this is plain stupid play because it gives the person on a draw pot odds to call you. In NL you generally want to open up after the flop with a bet between 1/2 and 1X the pot. Doing this denies pot odds to anyone drawing to a hand without some humongous numbers of outs. Of course if you flop aces full of kings or something similar, maybe you want those drawing hands in there, but checking is often more effective than an artificially low bet. In PL, you will more frequently bet pot period.

Now, in calculating pot odds in NL or PL, the 4X value isn't too useful. The percentage to hit is 2 X # of outs on each of two draws for 4X. In Limit, absent two other players who are reraising each other, there's a significant likelihood you will get pot odds on the turn if you got them on the flop, so 4X works. But in NL or PL, a well-stacked player can deny you odds for your draw with any single bet. So, if you calculate based on 4X, but then have your single opponent bet pot on the turn after you didn't hit, that calculation no longer holds. Instead, in considering your draw odds, it makes more sense to use 2X twice, unless you are playing against those minimum bet fish mentioned previously.

NL and PL are more situational than Limit. Likewise the "implied odds" that are often mentioned along with "pot odds" work differently. Implied odds are a kind of hedge factor sometimes used in the computation of pot odds. The idea is that if one hits, that can be worth an additional bet and call. If so, then it's possible to factor that into your calculation. It's a known factor: one big bet, and it's fairly likely that an opponent with an otherwise best hand will call it against the possibility that you hit your draw. Limit has been called "No Foldem Holdem" after all.

With NL or PL, you really need a handle on your opponent's play. This becomes way more important than the actual odds you're getting for your draw. Likewise, I think that the odds to hit become more important than pot odds. If you have an open-ended or double belly buster straight draw as well as a flush draw working for you, that's 17 outs right there, which yields a 68% chance of hitting at least one of them. This starts to be a raising or betting hand, not a straight call, assuming you are reasonably certain the straight or flush is going to be good. On the other hand, a simple straight draw will hit less than 1/3rd of the time (8 outs * 4 ~= 32%), with only about a 16% chance of hitting by the turn.

One of the classic scenarios in low stakes NL or PL, including tournaments, SNG's, and ring games, results from a loose player who calls too many hands and then makes some minimal bet on the flop based on one or two high cards that didn't hit. The player on the draw gets great odds for the next card if he or she uses the 4X model. Then the loose player hits the king, queen, ace, or whatever on the turn and bets the pot (or overbets in NL). No more pot odds, and frequently not even odds to call on the minimal bet if the drawing player had used the 2X rule. Add two or three of these jokers to a table and there are all these three and four way pots that are cheap at the flop, but get hugely expensive on the turn. Generally speaking, in NL or PL, look at your odds one card at a time, unless you are playing against people who routinely make minimal bets. On your side of the game, don't make bets that are small enough to give your opponent good odds on a draw.

In the same way, the "implied odds" become highly situational in NL. Because bluffing is more powerful in NL and PL, it is used more frequently. As a result, with some players, one can get away with a fairly large bet, or even a push, when a draw hits. Likewise many players are reluctant to drop sets with a high kicker even with a straight or flush or both possible on the board. On the other hand, I've seen players fold to a minimum bet in the same circumstances. Some players seem totally oblivious to the board's potential. I've seen many cases where two players pushed into a flush or straight board with neither of them having a pat hand. Other players are highly aware of the possibilities. With the first group, it's often possible to pull down a huge pot when a the draw hits. With the second, it's often possible to bluff them off their hand when the draw appears to hit.

One of the classic examples here is the board with only two suits at the turn. If either suit hits at the river, many cautious players can be bluffed off. For the more astute who actually are trying to read their opponents, it can be dangerous to try the bluff on the runner-runner hit, if the flop high card is not of that suit and there was betting at the flop. But that kind of analysis is fairly uncommon in low-stakes games. Few players actually work backwards in putting their opponents on hands.

In sum, while simple (and simplified) concepts of probability work well throughout limit holdem, they become of secondary importance in NL and PL. Instead the texture of the whole situation becomes the driving factor in play, frequently more so than the actual cards one holds.

If you have an open-ended or double belly buster straight draw as well as a flush draw working for you, that's 17 outs right there, which yields a 68% chance of hitting at least one of them.

17 outs? i think you miscounted. with this draw you have only 15 outs as 2 of the cards that would make your straight would also make your flush ! with a draw like this you really don't need to think about pot odds. the odds that you'll make the hand are in your favor. & if you have overcards to the board & you put your opponent on just top pr, say the flop was 6c 10h Jc & you have Kc Qc & you are putting your opponent on A J off suit you can add 6 more outs.3 Ks & 3 Qs, again you don't really need to consider pot odds with that kind of draw.
where most people make bad calls in regard to pot odds is when they come into a raised pot with a small pp when they suspect that the raiser has a much bigger pp. say UTG raises to 5x the BB & it's folded to you in the BB & you have 66. if you think your opponent has KK or AA your 6s are a 4 to 1 dog & you're getting nowhere near correct pot odds to make the call. but i see guys make those calls all the time!!! the other place i see players make bad calls re: pot odds is when they have an inside str8 draw. RARELY is there enough $$ and/or players involved to chase a gut shot when you have no other outs.
the other place i see players really screw up when it comes to pot odds is when they are in the small blind & there are a ton of limpers in the pot. for example: i was on a freeroll tourney once on the SB with K 3 spades we were only 2 or 3 hands into level 1. THE ENTIRE TABLE LIMPED IN !!!! the K 3 i wasn't real happy about suddenly looked like GOLD !! there were 9 1/2 bets in the pot & i needed to put in 1/2 a bet to call. NINETEEN to ONE pot odds !!!!!! any 2 cards would've been good! as it happened i flopped a set of 3s & hit a full house with a river K to bust Mr UTG limper with his pocket aces ! when you have a big hand NEVER give someone MONSTER pot odds.

joemac696969 wrote:I definatly could use use a book on pot odds, have a hard time figuring them out lol.

Hmmmmmmmm sounds like me

in online pokers odds doesnt excist they drawing cards not randomly