Early Tournament Play - Crucial Decison

Third level of blinds (25/50)

UTG min raises to 100

Two players call, three players fold.

I'm sitting on the button with QQ and raise to 575.

SB and BB fold.

Player UTG raises me all-in, the original callers fold.

With only half an hour in the tournament gone, sitting on the average stack size, what is the correct play?

I'll discuss what my play was, but I'd also like to hear the opinions of our valued members as well.

My play at the pot:
- Firstly, there are only two hands in the deck that can beat beating me at this moment. Probability? I think it's less than a percentile, but I could be wrong. Of course it's possible that the other player has me beat, but the chances are slim to nil.
- From my experience, players are either min-raising to juice up the pot with suspectable hands, OR, they sometimes try to get sneaky and
raise with A-K. I've seen alot of low-pairs in this situation, but alot of good players will not limp into a pot UTG with a premium hand.
- The re-raise was a little difficult. Now I have to decide whether he has AK,AQ,AJ or a pair along the lines of 8s, 9s, 10s, or Js.
- If I put him on any pair smaller than mine, obviously I should insta-call. If I put him on AQ or AJ, I call because a queen would be devestating for the former and against AJ he has one less chance of catching up.
- After putting it all together, I just don't believe he has AA or KK. He's been playing alot of pots, stealing in position and trying all kinds of bets. I know it's likely he has a strong hand, but the all-in push makes me believe he wants to end the hand here. A good player with AA or KK would try to extract the most value from my hand (which might not even be a hand considering I was on the button and could have anything as a blind steal).
- I believe he has either AK or AQ, or a smaller pocket pair, and I call for my tournament life. He shows AK offsuit.

Is this a situation that you want to be in only 30 minutes into a 4,5 hours tournament? The percentages are 56/43 in your favor, but we all know how often the King or Ace pops out on the flop (something like 30% of the time, again, might be wrong on the exact number but I think it's close).

So what would you do if you were in my position?

Hogster, Dats, Philly, TBD, Trucker, Nic...looking for some of your opinons here!

Anyone?

I'm no pro ...far from it ....but my two cents is my thinking would be very much like yours ..the hands I would be most worried of are AA KK or the coin flip AK....if he has AQ or less I'm on top with him praying for a ace anything else and I dominate preflop...but since he minimum raised UTG first and then jumped all the way to allin I would tend to suspect suited AK or AQ or even less and he is trying to chase everyone away preflop and take what is in pot....personally I would call with the Q's with the belief he still has to catch cards + the ladys are useally very kind to me. ........by the way did you slay him?

Well, seeing as I was watching the you the whole time, and I know the outcome of the hand, I could be a smartass and tell you exactly what to do to make the most money out of this hand, but I think i'll just give you my honest opinion instead

I would have called the all in. QQ is a monster hand and not many things can beat it. I don't think that anyone could have laid down pocket queens in this situation.

Given the overall tournament situation, being only a half hour into the game, makes me much more liekly to fold. But before I can just throw this hand away, I've got to seriously consider a couple of things first.

First we've got to consider the odds that you're already beat. I believe you're correct at it being under 1%. I've figured it to be a shade over .9%. So you're probably best.

Chalk 1 against folding.

Next we've got to take a look at this guy's raise. Min-raises are (I've got no exact number on this) more often than not an indication that a player has a small pair or some other hand their not super confident about winning at that point.

Maybe chalk another against folding?

Now we've got to look at how this guy acted preflop. Min raise, which I've always thought is just weak, into a massive, overboard re-raise. Let's assume he's got AA or KK. Now he knows that you're feeling pretty strong about your hand, and it's early on, so if he's like me, he's thinking his odds of getting action are pretty good. Then again, if he's got AA or KK, why not re-raise a reasonable amount? This will almost certainly push out any action between you guys, isolating it heads up...just what you want with AA or KK. If the raise is reasonable, you're more liekly to give him action, which is what you would want. My first instinct would be that he is trying to push me off of the pot. He is essentially saying to me, "Don't call." Makes me want to call. Still, because of how early it is in the game, and how tricky some players can be, this area is a little to gray for me.

No chalk.

So now we've got to look at this player. This is what is most likely going to finalize my decision. If this player has been playing very tight, I've got to give him some respect. If he hasn't shown down a hand in the first half-hour of the game, he's got to be feeling pretty strong about this hand to be willing to go to the showdown with it. If this player has been playing loose, that shows that his idea of high value hands is much broader than mine. He feels 9 7 and 6 3 are high value hands if he's been playing them, right? Maybe not super high value, but high enough to play. From my experience, this player views anything AT or roughly the same way I view AA or KK. Their views on KQ, KJ, KT, QJ, QT, etc., tend to be similar to my views on AQs, AKs, or JJ.

And there it is. This player overvalues hands, that's what's got him playing so loose in the 1st place. I make the call. Sometimes it works, and sometimes it ends the tourney for me, but I make the call. And more often than not when I do make that call in this situation, I am getting them in best. And that's what poker is all about.

My two cents is that it is still too early in the tourney and you don't have a good read on your opponent so i'd probably fold. The only time i'd call is if its a small buy in tourney that doesn't hurt your bankroll then i'd take a gamble.

Well.. I'd say there are some factors here that I don't know about. Like TBD said... is he a tight player... loose ... or how has he bet in some other hands. THere have been a lot of hands played to be in the 3rd level and a half hour into it....you may have played 50 hands by now. There are some other factors.. like what type of tournament is this? Is it a buy in that you put up some fair size part of your bankroll on.. is it a very small buy in.... micro... or maybe is it a freeroll? These things may weigh at least some on this decision. I'll have to assume it's an online game.. and not live. Okay... so just generally speaking then... it would be very hard to lay down this hand. You must have some idea of his tendacies by now... assuming he's not so tight he hasn't played a hand... I think you probably have to play the hand. If we get so scared of getting knocked out of a tourney that we don't play hands such as this one... what's the point in entering and playing at all? I gotta think you wouldn't put him on AA, KK, or evern A,K therefore....make the call....just my take on it.

sometimes u just got to go with your gut and play the hand that if u think can win go for it i know its early in the event but if ya hit your in good shape its a matter of when and at what point do you want to take the risk i play risky early so if i get bounced so be it .

I know you didnt mention it but i feel i should ask...aside from tournament life what was at risk here?Was this a buy in?If so how much?To me early in a freeroll and even buy ins capping at say 2.25 i would make that call..yes player knowledge filters in heavy here but if you had nothing to go on i think making the call is wise for these reasons...it will help secure your placing in the tournament,allowing you time to be more selective as the blinds take their toll on smaller stacks.I am also one in freerolls who feels that establishing myself early is great versus a long drawn out battle only to finish itm....but above all alse...if this is any help...i would fold that AK hand in any situation long before i gave up that pair.

I would of prob pushed. I know it may of put out the same results but I would of def pushed