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This has been shared with me about BAD BEATS

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This has been shared with me about BAD BEATS Empty This has been shared with me about BAD BEATS

Post by konawajim Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:07 pm

BAD BEAT #1...

When you catch a monster hand but lose to a BIGGER monster hand.

For example, let's say you're holding pocket Aces and the flop hits A-6-6. That means you've got a full house.

Your opponent goes ALL-IN... and you call. You think your Aces are the best hand but they're NOT, because your
opponent has pocket sixes, which gives him the four-of-a-kind.

BAD BEAT #2...

When YOU have the best hand and your opponent has the WORST hand but your opponent GETS LUCKY and wins the pot.

For example, let's say you have pocket Aces and go all-in. Your opponent calls with pocket three's.

The flop hits 2-4-5 and the turn card is a 6, giving your opponent the STRAIGHT and causing you to lose the hand.

Now that's a bad beat.

And let's face it, the SECOND type of bad beat-- the onewhere your opponent gets totally LUCKY and outdraws you-- is the kind of beat that just plain SUCKS. And pisses you off.

In fact, the second type of bad beat is the kind you REMEMBER the most too. When someone says, "Hey man, how did your card game go?", the first thing that will come out of your mouth will be the story of that bad beat.

Am I right?

Now here's what's interesting...

MORE BAD BEATS HAPPEN IN ONLINE POKER THAN IN "REGULAR" LIVE POKER.

Literally, you'll see more bad beats happen in an online poker game than you'll see at a local cash game or in a casino.

If you play both online and offline poker, I'm sure you agree with this statement.
So what's going on here? Why would it be this way?

There are two popular "theories"...

1. Online poker is rigged.

2. There are more hands per hour, therefore it's an ILLUSION
that there are more bad beats.

My opinion is that BOTH of these theories are WRONG.

Here's why:

First off, I genuinely believe online poker is NOT rigged. I mean, c'mon... Do you REALLY think these multi-billion dollar casinos would need to RIG hands?

They make their money from tournament entry fees and rakes... and trust me, they're making plenty.

OK, so what about the second theory?

Well, I do agree that there are more hands per hour in online poker than offline poker. There's no disputing that.

But I don't think that's a good enough reason...

Because my belief is that there are MORE bad beats that happen per X number of hands ONLINE than for offline poker.

For instance, let's say you played 100 hands. And let's say you caught two really bad beats for every 100 hands at a casino. That's 2%.

In online poker, you're likely to catch FIVE or even TEN of those really bad beats per 100 hands. That's 5-10%.

So the fact that you're seeing MORE hands doesn't explain the HIGHER PERCENTAGE of bad beats.

Still with me?

OK, so now let me give you MY "theory" about this.

It's not really a theory. Just good old simple logic, actually.

Here it goes:

The reason there are more bad beats in ONLINE poker is because the very NATURE of online poker leads people to PLAY DIFFERENTLY.

The CARDS and ODDS are the same.

It's the PLAYERS that aren't the same.

What I mean is that for online poker, a LARGE portion of players adopt the style of LOOSE-AGGRESSIVE.

Translation? Manic.

They act irrationally... play hands they shouldn't play... and bet way too aggressively for most given situations.

Why?

Because online poker isn't as "real".

The money isn't as real. I mean, heck... the casinos give you so much "free" money when you sign up, how COULD it feel real?

The cards aren't real. The chips aren't real. The table isn't real. NONE OF THAT STUFF EVEN EXISTS.

All you see when you play online poker are some silly little animations. And you hear some "clickity-click" sounds of fake chips.

That's it.

Nothing else.

Period.

And if you LOSE a game, all you have to do is make three or four mouse clicks and you're INSTANTLY playing another game.

And hell, you can PLAY ten games at once if you want!

You can literally play poker against 100 players AT THE SAME TIME!

It's a different world, my friend.

Now... let's get back to the bad beats.

The FACT that players are LOOSE-AGGRESSIVE is what leads to the SITUATIONS where bad beats happen.

Here's why:

1. Players bet their draws more or call large bets with draws or OK hands (i.e. bottom pair).

2. More players are involved in every pot.

3. The pots are bigger, since players are more aggressive.

When these conditions COMBINE TOGETHER, it creates an environment where there are a lot of BIG POTS and bad beats.

It's not that the cards are "rigged".

It's that the betting patterns and playing styles are DIFFERENT than what you're used to.

And when you combine that with the fact that you see more hands per hour, it inevitably leads to seeing a lot more "crazy" hands and bad beats than in regular poker.

OK, so now the obvious question becomes...

Is there any way to PREVENT bad beats?

The answer is yes and no.

Ultimately, bad beats will occur NO MATTER WHAT if you're playing good poker. Because to win at poker, you've got to be willing to take RISKS.

And most risks have a minimum 20% chance or more of NOT working out in your favor.

With that being said, there ARE ways to prevent a LARGE PORTION of the bad beats you'll see online.

Not only can you prevent them, but you can literally turn it around and make it YOUR ULTIMATE ADVANTAGE.

The key is to "tiltthe tables" in your favor and USE the fact that players are so loose and aggressive to HELP YOU win more pots.

The way you achieve this is by adopting a SPECIAL playing style designed SPECIFICALLY for online poker...

My name for this "secret sauce" is this:

TIGHT-AGGRESSIVE SQUARED.

The concept of "tight-aggressive squared" is quite simple...

It starts with the logic that tight-aggressive is the most effective playing style to use in poker.

Tight-aggressive means TIGHT with hand selection, AGGRESSIVE with betting.

With online poker, there are more players in every hand. That means you must play EVEN TIGHTER with your hand selection.

You should ONLY play monster hands!

Period!

There's absolutely no reason to get involved with "decent" hands because the odds are against you.

You're bound to run into players who are CHASING or who just caught an extremely lucky flop.

When you DO get involved with a hand, you must be OVERLY aggressive. The pot size will be bigger, so you can't lose many hands or else you'll be out of the game in a hurry.

You must STRIKE... and you must STRIKE HARD.

You must risk ALL OF YOUR CHIPS-- frequently-- in order to win.

Of course, it's much easier to risk all of your chips when you have a GREAT HAND than it is otherwise.

You see, the goal is to do two things:

1. Force out all but one, maybe two players for any pot you get involved with.

2. Have the odds so unbelievably stacked in your favor that you win far more HUGE pots than you lose.

And when you win lots of big pots, you become chip leader VERY QUICKLY. And that's how you take control over a poker table.

The reason you want to force people OUT of the hand is simple mathematics.

Let's say for instance you get pocket ACES.

Here's what three of your opponents are holding:

Player 1: K-K

Player 2: 10-9 suited

Player 3: Q-10 offsuit

Now, if you went heads-up against any of these hands
ONE-ON-ONE, your odds of winning would be about 80%. They'd
be 85% against Player 3.

BUT...

If you went up against ALL THREE of these opponents in one single hand, your odds of winning is just 58.5%!

That's just over 50/50 with theabsoluteBEST starting hand possible.

Get my point?

So when you GET pocket Aces, you need to FORCE OUT all but one caller.

You've got to be VERY AGGRESSIVE.

In low stakes Sit and Go's and ring games online, that quite often means going all-in.

Like I said, you've got to risk ALL your chips.

Now if you go all-in and one of those players makes a CALL, you'll win four out of five times.

So if you get five big hands a game, you only lose ONCE. Of course, that one you lose USUALLY won't wipe you out, because you'll have more chips from the OTHER big hands...

Get my drift?

Literally, if I play low-stakes online Sit and Go's, here is what my betting pattern looks like:

Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
Limp-in
Fold
Limp-in
Fold
Fold
Fold
All-in
Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
All-In
Fold

And so on...

I'm serious!

THIS IS HOW YOU WIN. It seems kind of "strange" to think about, but this is it!

Now... when you get down to just a few players in a game, it's time to bust out the strategies, bluffs, trick plays,
and so on.

BUT WHAT GETS YOU THERE is this TIGHT-AGGRESSIVE SQUARED style of play.

OK, so now the question becomes...

If all you did was ever FOLD or go ALL-IN, why would anyone ever CALL your bets?

What a great question.

And we've already gone over the answer...

It's because online poker isn't the same as offline poker. The people on there are DISTRACTED and often STUPID and VERY LOOSE.

That's all there is to it.

AND THAT IS PRECISELY WHY ONLINE POKER IS SO MUCH EASIER TO MAKE MONEY AT... ONCE YOU LEARN THESE SECRETS.

Once you "crack the code", it's amazing how SIMPLE it is to win at online poker.

It's actually SO SIMPLE and SO IRRATIONAL that I'm not sure it will always be this way. It seems that all those fish out there have GOT to go broke sooner or later.

But until that day comes, I'll be making hay while the sun is shining...

And I recommend you do the same.
their was more, but this is what I wanted the share..


Last edited by konawajim on Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:28 pm; edited 1 time in total
konawajim
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Post by rsseippel Tue Sep 09, 2008 10:20 pm

You can sell a ketchup popsickle to a person wearing white. You've got me convinced! Verty nice
rsseippel
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Post by ryodejaneiro Fri Sep 12, 2008 12:38 pm

Some interesting thoughts there konawajim.

I think another thing that leads to people getting bad beats might be people's perception of your playing style. If people perceive you to be weak (even if you're actually playing tight-aggressive), then they may perhaps call your all in with a hand they may not usually call with. I think this may be particularly true in instances like the one you give about pocket aces vs pocket threes. Table image is something that can be very much influential in the outcome of your success at the tables.

Literally, if I play low-stakes online Sit and Go's, here is what my betting pattern looks like:

Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
Limp-in
Fold
Limp-in
Fold
Fold
Fold
All-in
Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
Fold
All-In
Fold

And so on...

I'm not sure if I can make myself play like this. It seems like if I strictly use this method, I will be playing the cards more so than my opponents and my position. If I'm card dead then using this strategy will make it tough for me to keeping my stack intact, especially in a tournament or a Sit & Go where the blinds keep on increasing. It seems that this might be a more effective ring game strategy since the blinds won't increase. But this is how I play early on in a tournament where play tends to be more loose than tight.

Another thought (and I don't necessarily think that this runs counter to your comments) is that we need to adjust our playing styles depending on how the other players are playing.

If the table is filled with maniacs who raise and re-raise, then it's best to fold the bulk of your hands and then aggressively play your good ones. But in a very tight table, you want to take advantage of your opponents tight play and maybe loosen your starting hand selection a little bit (but not too much) to steal the blinds and add to your stack.

What do you think of this konawajim? Would this fit in or go against the style of play that you suggest?
ryodejaneiro
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